Tag Archive | "technical analysis"

The One Valid School of Analysis

Monday, November 17, 2008


Perennial debates about the value of fundamental vs. technical vs. quantitative analysis are missing the point.  The only valid school of analysis is the objective kind. Consider some of the feel-good subjective components that have adulterated each approach: Fundamental analysis: any valuation based on growth estimates is suspect.  And you don’t need us to remind you of the dismal record of bright young sell-side analysts when it comes to pricing stocks.  Picking strong companies with stable earnings trading at…

Diversifying Across Strategies

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

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One reason we are constantly on the hunt for new strategies is that humans, as a species, have a really hard time functioning outside of our cognitive biases.  Biases aren’t necessarily a moral failing – they’re not a failing at all, when you really think about some of them.  Maybe confirmation bias is a tendency that was selected for among our distant ancestors because individuals with the disposition to make some rough, if somewhat unjustified inferences were better…

Bulls: “We’ve Made a Huge Mistake…”

Thursday, June 26, 2008


On a day like this, you really need to start off any post with some good news.  Apparently, one of the greatest television shows of our time might be made into a movie: we’re talking about Arrested Development.  So you see, there is hope for this country after all.  (Nevermind that we’re all so scared of the boogeyman that the government will be warrantlessly watching the movie over our shoulders; that’s a matter for another day.) Okay, now…

Is the VIX Impervious to Technical Analysis?

Friday, April 11, 2008


Yes, yes it is. The psychologist Abraham Maslow famously said, “When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” It has become increasingly common to see financial journalists and bloggers refer to the VIX as an indicator of market sentiment and sometimes of market direction, and those authors inclined toward technical analysis even apply their tools to draw predictive conclusions. But the VIX doesn’t seem to act very nail-like in spite of the best efforts…


Jared Woodard specializes in trading volatility as an asset class. With over a decade of experience trading options and other volatility products ... Read More


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