Tag Archive | "election"

The Decline of Angry White Guys

Tuesday, November 6, 2012


This post discusses the election, what I expect to happen, and my views on fiscal and monetary policy. This is a normally politics-free blog, but economic policy impacts markets in a big way, and investors who believe myths about the nature of debt and money put themselves at a disadvantage. Comments engaging with the substance of the arguments below are welcome; the rest will be deleted. I predict Obama will win the election by at least 33 electoral votes. My…

Hedging against an unclear election

Monday, November 5, 2012

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The election this week has sparked countless articles about the likely effects of an Obama or a Romney win on various sectors of the economy, but in the short term, traders should focus not on the effects of a win by one party, but on the effects of an unclear outcome for either party. The FX team at Citi recently called a disputed electoral outcome the “biggest political risk” facing markets right now: We view most of the…

The Long Palin Vertical Spread

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

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As the market sighs and concedes a monster gap up, isn’t it good to know that there’s always a bull market somewhere?  We’re speaking, of course, about the Intrade contract betting that Sarah Palin will withdraw (or, more likely, be withdrawn) as the Republican VP nominee before the 2008 election. If you were actually long this PALIN.VP.WITHDRAWN contract, perhaps you could hedge the gamble with some long 2008.PRES.McCAIN, on the view that these might be close to inversely…

A Tepid Tuesday

Tuesday, June 10, 2008


The market was flat/down today, discouraged by the news that a certain Presidential candidate would, if elected, “veto every single beer.” Just a gaffe, sure, but did you know that if you drink Magic Hat (pictured) then the terrorists will win? You mean Vermont separatists aren’t terrorists? Whatever. All I know is that they have beards and don’t like Toby Keith. Close enough. The other Presidential candidate has the power to decimate entire industries, just by being. The…


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