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Friedman Hearts Pinochet

Tuesday, July 31, 2012


Today would have been Milton Friedman's 100th birthday and, predictably, people on the internet are stumbling over themselves to give rapturous applause. 

In his Nobel lecture, Friedman...

Friday Delta Hedge

Friday, January 28, 2011


The net delta column on the Portfolio page has been updated. For a trader using our risk-adjusted position sizing method and risking $5000 per iron condor trade, the net portfolio SPY delta for February should be about -244. That exposure can be eliminated by buying 244 SPY shares; or if you are following us in trading combo positions to maximize capital efficiency: Buy 2 SPY Feb 127 calls and sell 2 SPY Feb 127 puts (the 127 combo) for…

Quant Wizards

Thursday, November 12, 2009


I was recently invited to join Quant Wizards, an exciting new service comprised of some of the top quantitatively-oriented financial bloggers around. The purpose of the service is to give traders an outlook for the following trading day based on the aggregate market calls of each of the seven participants. A consensus outlook is derived by passing those market calls through an adaptive algorithm, and the result is a simple directional indicator for each of the S&P 500, the…

Buying In (Sort Of, Maybe)

Thursday, January 29, 2009


Coming into the week we were watching a triangle consolidation pattern on the 60-minute chart of the S&P 500, and that pattern resolved to the upside within minutes of the market opening Monday morning. If there were any doubt left about the short-term trend, it was answered resoundingly by yesterday’s gap open above the key 850 – 858 resistance zone we’ve been watching since support there failed two weeks ago. Most breakouts are retested before moving higher, and this…

Monday Morning Update

Monday, December 8, 2008


With Friday’s rally, the S&P 500 broke through short-term downtrend resistance on the 60-minute chart to close just under the 200-bar simple moving average and the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The stochastic oscillator, MACD and RSI are all looking bullish, but the index has to clear resistance at its post-Thanksgiving high of 896 (S&P futures are at about 900 as of 9:00 this morning) before we can add a higher high to Friday’s higher low and confirm a…


Monday, December 1, 2008


12/02/08 Sigma Stop: OFF Allocation Model1 (Weekly): 32.93% Allocation Model2 (Daily): 100% see post comments!

In a Corner

Tuesday, November 18, 2008


The charts turned rather ugly Friday and Monday, as buyers failed to follow through on Thursday’s rally. After perfectly routine profit-taking Friday morning, the bulls tried to push higher but were beaten back at Thursday’s high. Sellers continued to dominate yesterday, negating the buy signals from Thursday. The S&P 500 ended the day below its 20-hour moving average and once again testing what is now a wide support zone formed by the lows from October 27/28 and the new low…

Cautiously Bullish

Friday, November 14, 2008


As we noted on the public blog, yesterday afternoon was a classic example of a false breakdown. The intraday range for IWM was $6.21—more than three times the ETF’s one-day standard deviation (based on 20-day historic volatility)—and the gain on Wednesday’s close was more than 2 sigma. Though not record-breaking, volume was up markedly, and the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume, which was less than 1:8 before 1:00, spiked to more than 12:1 by the close of…

Appropriately Neutral

Tuesday, November 11, 2008


Today the pall of negative sentiment that’s been hanging over the market for nearly a week trumped a technical picture that appeared to be improving mid-afternoon. Buyers came in on news of government plans to stem the tide of mortgage foreclosures, and the market rallied more than 3.5% off its intraday low. That was enough to produce buy signals on 30-minute charts of the major indexes (right), but then sellers stepped up and erased virtually the entire advance.…

Calendar Options Autotrading with OptionsHouse

Friday, November 7, 2008


We’re pleased to announce that OptionsHouse recently joined the list of brokers that provide autotrading for subscribers to our new Calendar Options service. Now OptionsHouse customers who want to learn our market-neutral strategy for generating regular monthly income using calendar spreads, but are new to options or to calendar trading, can follow along with our real trades automatically. (Note, however, that autotrading is offered as an educational supplement and is not appropriate or permitted for use as…


Jared Woodard specializes in trading volatility as an asset class. With over a decade of experience trading options and other volatility products ... Read More


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